Opening card
Opening card
Workshop reference
CGY · LW · $10.50M AAV
Stars Lab public earn cards are Dallas Stars only (2026-27 foundation). League research still scores the whole NHL for comps — this name is not on the Stars desk.
Contract · signing context
AAV from NHL.com team PR / official news (gold)
One story: current books → signed future (if any) → earn-by → %cap over term → provenance. Worth re-mints fair% at today's and FA-summer ceilings.
Current books
Ceiling $83.50M
Worth
Worth now
5.1% · $4.89M
fair% × announced 2025-26 ceil $95.50M
Earn-by
Does not catch within term (closest 2030–31: still −2.9 pp)
Path: cap dilution + aging
Projection, not a promise — aging curve × cap path. · low confidence
dollars = fair% × ceiling(season) · pct = AAV ÷ ceiling(season). Worth identities
Why this read · tough sledding
This player will struggle to live up to this contract — fair $4.89M vs AAV $10.50M (-7.5 pp residual).
Calculated from Value Score inputs, not written by AI. How this is computed
Provenance
PR-verified · DB quality curated
AAV from NHL.com team PR / official news (gold) Trust tiers · Source
n=8 wing peers · %cap → $95.5M ceil. Peers matched on %cap at signing when available — see research/comps.
Current production window 2025-26 · contract as-of 2026-08-31. Not a full CBA sheet (no LTIR / burial).
Contract · signing context
AAV from NHL.com team PR / official news (gold)
One story: current books → signed future (if any) → earn-by → %cap over term → provenance. Worth re-mints fair% at today's and FA-summer ceilings.
Current books
Ceiling $83.50M
Worth
Worth now
5.1% · $4.89M
fair% × announced 2025-26 ceil $95.50M
Earn-by
Does not catch within term (closest 2030–31: still −2.9 pp)
Path: cap dilution + aging
Projection, not a promise — aging curve × cap path. · low confidence
dollars = fair% × ceiling(season) · pct = AAV ÷ ceiling(season). Worth identities
Why this read · tough sledding
This player will struggle to live up to this contract — fair $4.89M vs AAV $10.50M (-7.5 pp residual).
Calculated from Value Score inputs, not written by AI. How this is computed
Provenance
PR-verified · DB quality curated
AAV from NHL.com team PR / official news (gold) Trust tiers · Source
n=8 wing peers · %cap → $95.5M ceil. Peers matched on %cap at signing when available — see research/comps.
Current production window 2025-26 · contract as-of 2026-08-31. Not a full CBA sheet (no LTIR / burial).