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Aging curves

How should fair AAV move with age by position — and do residuals blow up late?

Age factor by position — term risk lives here.

Next · Role-conditioned curves (1F vs 3F), not just F/D/G.

Model curve (v1.38)

Multiplier on current production before term risk. Peak ≈ 1.00.

Age	F	D	G
18	0.92	0.92	0.90
20	0.92	0.92	0.90
22	0.97	0.96	0.90
24	1.00	1.00	0.97
26	1.00	1.00	1.00
28	1.00	1.00	1.00
30	0.97	0.98	1.00
32	0.92	0.94	0.94
34	0.88	0.89	0.94
35	0.83	0.84	0.86
36	0.83	0.84	0.86
37	0.77	0.76	0.86
38	0.77	0.76	0.78
39	0.77	0.76	0.78
40	0.77	0.76	0.78

Residuals by age band

Market cohort only (n=349). If late-age MAE spikes, the curve or term risk is under-punishing decline.

23–25n=41
MAE $1.12M·bias $0.55M
26–28n=71
MAE $1.07M·bias $0.27M
29–31n=118
MAE $0.93M·bias $0.02M
32–34n=85
MAE $1.04M·bias $-0.38M
35+n=34
MAE $1.39M·bias $-0.92M