Usage & roles

Do tough-minute players and sheltered scorers price differently at similar production?

2025-26 skaters n=715 · multi-year rows n=612 · MP floor 2008

Next · Test whether a tiny usage nudge improves market holdout MAE.

Deployment board

Minutes first, then zone context

This board uses the same stored MoneyPuck season-summary rows as Value Score. It does not infer line charts. It asks whether a player is earning scarce minutes in hard deployment, or posting offense with a heavy offensive-zone push.

Current production season is 2025-26; stability uses the latest three MoneyPuck years where the player has 20+ games.

Current rows

715

2025-26 skaters with 20+ GP

Stability window

2023-26

Weighted by games / zone-start volume

History floor

2008

MoneyPuck warehouse floor, not full NHL history

Roles → dollars finding

Similar production, different deployment price

market n=326 · matched n=152

At similar 25-70 pts/82 production, tough-minute market skaters clear 0.8 percentage points more fair cap than high-OZ sheltered scorers, while the market pays only 0.0 points more.

Curated market cohort only. Sheltered means 60%+ OZ starts and 13+ TOI/GP; tough means 55% or lower OZ starts and 16+ TOI/GP. Effects are equal-weighted across the production bands below.

Fair %cap effect

+0.8pp

Tough minus sheltered

Market %cap effect

+0.0pp

Actual cap share premium

Market AAV effect

$+0.1M

Actual AAV premium

Production gap

-1.5

Pts/82, tough minus sheltered

Production	n	Pts/82	TOI gap	OZ gap

Tough-minute load

Qualified skaters with 16+ TOI/GP and no more than 55% offensive-zone starts, sorted by TOI plus defensive-zone share.

TOI + DZ share

Player	Role	TOI	OZ%	DZ%	xG%	Pts/82	3yr TOI	Stability
Moritz Seider DET · D	1D 1D minutes	25.7	43%	57%	59%	60.0	24.4 OZ 42%	67% 3 yrs · range 3.3
Mike Matheson MTL · D	1D 1D minutes	24.2	27%	73%	42%	38.9	24.9 OZ 36%	100% 3 yrs · range 1.4

Sheltered scoring

Qualified skaters with 13+ TOI/GP, 35+ points per 82, and at least 60% offensive-zone starts, sorted by shelter plus scoring rate.

OZ share + pts/82

Player	Role	TOI	OZ%	DZ%	xG%	Pts/82	3yr TOI	Stability
Nathan MacKinnon COL · C	1F Top-line minutes	22.3	77%	23%	65%	130.2	22.6 OZ 76%	100% 3 yrs · range 0.6
Nikita Kucherov TBL · R	1F Top-line minutes	20.3	75%	25%	64%	140.3	21.1 OZ 74%	100%

Definitions

• TOI is MoneyPuck all-situations icetime divided by games played.
• OZ% / DZ% are individual shift-start shares from stored MoneyPuck OZ and DZ start counts.
• Role labels reuse `usageRole`: 1F / 2F / 3F / Depth and 1D / 2D / 3D / Depth.
• Market rows reuse the calibration cohort: curated/import contracts, AAV at least $2M, age 24+, GP at least 40, and no ELC/bridge flag.

What this is not

This is not a matchup model and does not know opponent quality or score state. It is a warehouse-backed usage instrument: minutes, zone-start tilt, on-ice xG%, and whether that role repeats across years.

Next · role-life-cycle glyph for age, usage, production, and decline.

25-40 pts/82	6 sh / 47 tough	37.2 / 33.0	+2.3 17.5 → 19.8	-28.4pp 67.8% → 39.4%	+0.3pp 4.9% → 5.2%	-0.8pp 6.5% → 5.7%	$-0.7M actual AAV
40-55 pts/82	20 sh / 31 tough	47.0 / 46.3	+4.2 15.6 → 19.8	-24.7pp 68.9% → 44.2%	+1.2pp 4.8% → 6.0%	+0.7pp 6.0% → 6.7%	$+0.8M actual AAV
55-70 pts/82	29 sh / 19 tough	62.5 / 62.9	+2.3 18.2 → 20.5	-21.7pp 70.0% → 48.3%	+0.9pp 6.7% → 7.6%	+0.2pp 7.2% → 7.4%	$+0.1M actual AAV