Research · Market
liveWhich loud underpays are structural (ELC/bridge) vs true market bargains?
Term residuals · market n=349 · term n=349
Next · Bridge vs UFA pricing residual study.
← Lab hubTakeaway
Long contracts skew 0.87 pp richer than fair on average, versus +0.06 pp for short deals.
One clear viz
fair%cap − paid%cap
Positive means the model is above the paycheck (underpay). Negative means the market paid richer than current fair%cap.
Same market cohort, grouped by paycheck size. This checks whether the term signal is just a high-AAV artifact.
<$4M · n=80 · MAE 0.75 pp
$4-7M · n=152 · MAE 1.05 pp
$7M+ · n=117 · MAE 1.58 pp
Long deals sorted by fair%cap − paid%cap, most negative first.
Cheap RFAs and ELCs are structurally under market. Leaderboards hide AAV < $2.5M so Celebrini-class talent does not drown mid-contract research. This module is the audit of that split.
Expected underpays — useful for talent ID, not “bargain board” claims.