Research · Science
liveCan an open WAR-style proxy (not licensed GAR) stabilize mid-star fair AAV?
Transparent contribution proxy — not EH GAR, labeled as such.
Next · Surface offense/impact/ST/two-way parts on player research view.
← Lab hubA transparent contribution proxy built from MoneyPuck rates already in the Value Score pipeline. Used as ~⅓ of skater fair AAV (v1.38) so mid-stars do not slam the dollar ceiling on counting stats alone.
Not Evolving-Hockey / hockey-graphs GAR/WAR. Those require a license. Never cite xWAR as official WAR.
Forwards: the model prices primary points (goals + primary assists) harder than secondary helpers. In fairAavForward, the offense index weights prim82 × 0.68 vs secondary at 0.26 (with adj xG still the lead term). Same signal feeds the xWAR offense part. The scatter below is curated scores only — click a point for the player page.
Adj/HD xG pace + primary points (and secondary for F). Replacement baselines differ for D vs F.
On-ice rel xG% scaled by TOI — usage-aware, capped.
PP/PK ice share — small positive only.
Penalties drawn/taken, takeaways/giveaways; blocks for D; FOW for C.
Rough UFA-ish scale: ~$1.15–1.25M per xWAR plus a floor, then blended with the component fair AAV and market comps. Pace factor damps thin GP samples.
Code: src/lib/value/xwar.ts