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Stars Lab

Did he earn the deal last night?

Dallas only·2026-27 desk·@xhockeyai

Lab 2.5·Release Notes →

HubNoteMissesTrustUFACompsEx-anteStructureAgingxWARGoaliesOutlookRoles

Research · Proof

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Trust & sample

Which scores are too thin / estimated / fallback to shout about?

Loud takes only when AAV is PR-verified or curated.

Next · Public weak-score audit that updates with every seed.

← Lab hub

715 scored · loud takes require ≥25 GP, non-estimated AAV, and solid trust tone.

Estimated AAV

n=92

Placeholder salaries — never treat as market truth.

  • Cutter Gauthier
    76 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $4.75M
  • William Eklund
    78 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $4.52M
  • Brandt Clarke
    82 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $3.51M
  • Adam Fantilli
    82 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $3.16M
  • Mackie Samoskevich
    77 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $3.03M
  • Igor Chernyshov
    28 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $2.74M
  • Tristan Luneau
    1 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $2.73M
  • Shane Wright
    74 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $2.17M
  • Simon Edvinsson
    72 GP · high · estimated
    |surplus| $2.05M
  • Matt Savoie
    82 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $1.86M
  • Kirill Kudryavtsev
    3 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $1.61M
  • Pavel Mintyukov
    73 GP · medium · estimated
    |surplus| $1.41M

Thin sample (<25 GP)

n=71

Production look only — no loud overpay/underpay claims.

  • Tristan Jarry
    14 GP · high · curated
    |surplus| $3.83M
  • Porter Martone
    9 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $3.21M
  • Cole Hutson
    14 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $2.88M
  • Ryan Strome
    19 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $2.78M
  • Nazem Kadri
    16 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $2.54M
  • Chris Tanev
    11 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $2.39M
  • Thatcher Demko
    20 GP · high · curated
    |surplus| $2.14M

Fallback production

n=36

Current MoneyPuck row missing — prior-MP/NHL fallback rates are quieter.

  • Alex Pietrangelo
    0 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $5.10M
  • Aleksander Barkov
    0 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $3.58M
  • Ty Smith
    0 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $557K
  • Justin Robidas
    2 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $235K
  • James Hagens
    2 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $200K
  • Sacha Boisvert
    7 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $199K
  • Helge Grans
    0 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $180K

Low confidence

n=118

Model already flagged uncertainty.

  • Lane Hutson
    82 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $8.07M
  • Alex Pietrangelo
    0 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $5.10M
  • Aleksander Barkov
    0 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $3.58M
  • Porter Martone
    9 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $3.21M
  • Igor Chernyshov
    28 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $2.74M
  • Tristan Luneau
    1 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $2.73M
  • Devin Cooley
    31 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $2.54M
William Karlsson
14 GP · medium · curated
|surplus| $2.11M
  • Ryan Graves
    22 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $1.92M
  • Filip Chytil
    12 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $1.87M
  • Ilya Protas
    4 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $1.65M
  • Connor Murphy
    20 GP · medium · curated
    |surplus| $1.55M
    • Nathan Gaucher
    3 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $175K
  • Luke Haymes
    4 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $100K
  • Florian Xhekaj
    5 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $92K
  • Kai Uchacz
    3 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $70K
  • Xavier Bourgault
    2 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $28K
    • Ilya Protas
    4 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $1.65M
  • Kirill Kudryavtsev
    3 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $1.61M
  • Hunter Brzustewicz
    34 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $1.53M
  • Jonathan Drouin
    9 GP · low · curated
    |surplus| $1.51M
  • Angus Booth
    1 GP · low · estimated
    |surplus| $1.39M